By Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ: PTON) soared nearly 20% on Wednesday after a senior UBS analyst issued an ultra-bullish note in its favour.
In her research note this morning, Arpine Kocharyan upgraded the connected fitness company to “buy” and raised her price target to $11 – indicating potential upside of over 80% on its previous close.
Peloton stock has gained rather significantly since early April but, even including today’s rally, is currently down some 8.0% versus its high on June 9th.
What could drive Peloton stock up in the second half of 2025?
UBS analyst turned positive on PTON shares today mostly because “we’re seeing better data trends for the company in terms of traffic and active users.”
Arpine Kocharyan is convinced that net subscriber decline will stabilise in the coming year (FY26) – which she believes will help unlock significant further upside in Peloton stock.
According to her, interactive visits came in flattish on a year-over-year basis in June – a meaningful improvement from down 11% in May.
Moreover, “active users have turned positive in May/June after declines since beginning of the year” as well, the analyst told clients in her research note.
UBS is constructive on Peloton Interactive Inc because continued topline growth and executives’ commitment to cutting costs could also drive upside in the company’s 2026 EBITDA.
PTON shares may rally post Q2 earnings on August 7th
Peloton has been actively engaged in reducing its showroom footprint to lower its debt in 2025.
The exercise equipment maker is scheduled to report its second-quarter financial results on August 7th.
Consensus is for it to lose 6 cents on a per-share basis in its fiscal Q2, narrower than the 8 cents a share it lost in the same quarter last year.
If the Nasdaq-listed firm managed to beat expectations next week, its earnings release could prove a major tailwind for PTON stock price to gain further in the second half of this year.
According to UBS analyst Kocharyan:
“We estimate +11-12% pricing increase in connected fitness subscription could drive roughly $90M-$100M of annualized revenue uplift, net of impact from higher churn, and upside to PTON’s $200M+ run rate cost saves target, with PTON also annualizing run rate cost saves in FY′26.”
Is it worth investing in Peloton Interactive Inc today?
All in all, if Peloton posts a better-than-expected report on August 7th, it could validate the UBS analyst’s bullish thesis and reignite investor confidence.
With improving user metrics, cost-cutting momentum, and potential pricing power, shares of the connected fitness company may be poised for a meaningful rebound – making the coming weeks pivotal for PTON stock trajectory.
What’s also worth mentioning is that UBS is not the only Wall Street firm that’s keeping bullish on Peloton shares ahead of the company’s upcoming Q2 earnings.
The consensus rating on Peloton Interactive currently sits at “overweight” with the mean target of about $9.40, indicating potential upside of another 30% from current levels.
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